Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

EI

Evergy, Inc. (EVRG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 adjusted and GAAP EPS were $0.54; management flagged the quarter as ~$0.05 below plan before mitigation, but reaffirmed FY25 EPS guidance of $3.92–$4.12 (midpoint $4.02) .
  • Revenue of $1.375B materially exceeded consensus, while EPS missed: revenue beat vs ~$1.018B consensus; EPS $0.54 vs ~$0.67 consensus (7 estimates) (S&P Global).
  • Drivers: recovery of regulated investments (+$0.13 EPS YoY) offset by lower industrial demand due to an unplanned refinery shutdown, leap-year comp headwind (~$0.03), and higher interest/depreciation; colder weather (+18% heating degree days) did not translate to margin due to declining winter block pricing .
  • Legislative and regulatory tailwinds: Missouri SB4 enacted; Kansas SB98/HB2107 advanced—supporting CWIP/PISA mechanisms, large-load tariffs, and new generation approvals; pipeline of large data center/industrial loads expanded, with announcements expected later in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Constructive policy environment and pipeline expansion: “Missouri Senate Bill 4… will support infrastructure investment, resource adequacy, reliability and growth,” and Kansas SB98 enhances competitiveness for large data centers; settlements filed for new gas plants and a solar farm .
  • Operational reliability despite extreme weather: SAIDI/SAIFI performance “favorably relative to targets”; teams ran well through blizzards and record cold; SPP winter peak over 48 GW underscores need for dispatchable resources .
  • Reaffirmed guidance and long-term outlook: FY25 EPS guidance maintained at $3.92–$4.12; long-term adjusted EPS CAGR target 4%–6% through 2029, aiming for upper half starting 2026 .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS miss vs Wall Street: Q1 EPS of $0.54 missed ~$0.67 consensus; management acknowledged the year started ~$0.05 below plan before mitigation actions (O&M levers, demand rebound) (S&P Global).
  • Demand headwinds: lower industrial demand from a large customer outage and January/February snowstorms; weather-normalized demand decreased ~3% despite total demand +2.7% .
  • Cost pressures: higher interest and depreciation from infrastructure investment weighed ~$0.10 EPS; winter block pricing diluted margin benefits from cold weather .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.331 $1.811 $1.257*$1.375
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.53 $2.02 $0.34 $0.54
EBITDA Margin %41.13%*50.89%*40.58%*43.13%*
  • Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global and may not carry document citations. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q1 2025 vs Estimates:

  • Revenue: Actual $1.375B vs Consensus ~$1.018B — Bold beat (3 estimates) (S&P Global).
  • EPS: Actual $0.54 vs Consensus ~$0.67 — Bold miss (7 estimates) (S&P Global).
Q1 2025 Estimate ComparisonConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Billions)~$1.018$1.375
Primary EPS ($USD)~$0.671$0.54
  • Source: S&P Global consensus; Evergy reported figures .

KPIs and Operating Drivers:

KPIQ1 2025 Detail
Heating Degree Days+18% YoY; volume benefits diluted by declining winter block pricing
Total Demand+2.7% YoY; weather-normalized demand −3% due to storms and industrial outage
Industrial LoadLarge refinery customer offline most of Q1; returned to normal in April
CustomersCustomer count +1% YoY; expected H2 ramp from Meta and Panasonic

Non-GAAP:

  • Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) was $0.54; reconciliation excludes mark-to-market hedges (none in Q1 2025; modest items in prior periods) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GAAP EPSFY 2025$3.92–$4.12 $3.92–$4.12 Maintained
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)FY 2025$3.92–$4.12 $3.92–$4.12 Maintained
Adjusted EPS LT GrowthThrough 20294%–6%; upper half starting 2026 4%–6%; upper half starting 2026 Maintained
Dividend per ShareQ2 2025$0.6675 (paid Mar 21) $0.6675 (payable Jun 20; record May 23) Maintained
Capital Investment Plan2025–2029$17.5B (raised at FY) $17.5B reaffirmed Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Q3 2024)Q-1 (Q4 2024)Current (Q1 2025)Trend
Large-load pipeline (data centers, manufacturing)6+ GW active; advanced talks; 2x 705MW CCGTs + 325MW solar announced Pipeline >11 GW; finalizing agreements for ~1.6 GW; tariff filings underway Pipeline expanded to ~12.2 GW; 300MW moved to “actively building”; 1.3 GW in final negotiations; announcements expected late 2025 Strengthening
Regulatory/legislativeMissouri West settlement; Kansas HB2527 enacted; cadence of rate cases Kansas Central rate review filed; Missouri SB4 advancing; large-load tariffs filed Missouri SB4 signed; Kansas SB98/HB2107 highlighted; settlements filed for new generation More constructive
Financing/equity planRolling 5-year capex ~$16.2B; equity issuances start 2026 Capex raised to $17.5B; equity need ~$2.8B (2026–2029); possible 2025 ATM setup, settlement in 2026/27 Same plan; potential 2025 forward equity setup; no dilution in 2025 Stable with optionality
Demand and weatherCooler summer; YTD weather-normalized +0.8%; Meta start noted 2025 load forecast +2.4% YoY; H2 contributions from Meta/Panasonic Q1 total demand +2.7% but weather-normalized −3%; winter block pricing dampened margins Near-term mixed; H2 stronger
Resource plan (IRP)Expanded generation additions; CCGTs/CTs in outer years IRP updates planned; CCN processes active IRPs filed in both states; settlements for new gas + solar; flexibility on coal retirement timing Execution progressing

Management Commentary

  • “We are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range and remain laser-focused on delivering against our financial targets…” — David Campbell, CEO .
  • “The long-term outlook for our business is as strong as it has been in decades… one of the most robust customer pipeline[s] in the industry.” — CEO .
  • “With unusual items… the first quarter was a slower start… without mitigation, we would be approximately $0.05 below… midpoint. We anticipate meeting the midpoint… with normal weather.” — CFO .
  • “Missouri Senate Bill 4… and Kansas SB98/HB2107… position our region for growth and reliability.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • EPS pacing: Q1 was ~5¢ below plan before mitigation; management expects to bridge via O&M levers and normal weather to achieve $4.02 midpoint .
  • Pipeline timing: 1.3 GW in final negotiations; announcements likely Q3/Q4 2025, linked to large-load tariff finalization; industrial outage normalized in April .
  • Equity sensitivity: Additional load (moving from 2%–3% to 4%–5% demand growth) could reduce equity needs by “hundreds of millions” over 5 years .
  • IRP coverage: Actively building/finalizing customers included in resource plan; coal retirement timing flexible given unit age and reliability needs .
  • 2025 equity issuance: May set up forward mechanisms in 2025 but no dilution until 2026/27 .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: EPS $0.54 vs consensus ~$0.67 (miss); revenue $1.375B vs consensus ~$1.018B (beat). 7 EPS estimates, 3 revenue estimates (S&P Global).
  • Prior quarters: Q3 2024 EPS $2.02 beat vs ~$1.94; Q4 2024 EPS $0.35 slightly below ~$0.37; revenue in Q4 roughly in line (S&P Global).
QuarterEPS ConsensusEPS ActualRevenue Consensus ($B)Revenue Actual ($B)
Q3 2024~$1.936$2.02 ~$2.378$1.811
Q4 2024~$0.374$0.35 ~$1.243$1.257*
Q1 2025~$0.671$0.54 ~$1.018$1.375
  • Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global and may not carry document citations. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term: Despite an EPS miss and softer weather-normalized load, reaffirmed FY25 guidance and O&M mitigation suggest the company intends to deliver the $4.02 midpoint; watch summer/fall demand and regulatory cadence .
  • Legislative tailwinds: Missouri SB4 and Kansas measures materially improve recovery mechanisms (PISA/CWIP), supporting execution of the $17.5B plan and dispatchable additions—positive for rate base growth and credit metrics .
  • Load-driven upside: Large-load announcements in H2 2025 could lower equity needs and lift demand growth into the 4%–5% range over time—monitor tariff outcomes and customer contracts .
  • Capital and dilution: Expect equity issuance beginning 2026–2027 (~$2.8B over 2026–2029), but 2025 actions (e.g., ATM) would be forward-settled with no 2025 dilution .
  • Margin dynamics: Winter block pricing caps margin upside from cold weather; H2 ramp (Meta, Panasonic) should improve sales mix and margin trajectory .
  • Risk watch: Industrial outages, cost inflation for new gas builds, and timing of tariff approvals remain execution risks; management cites flexibility on coal retirements to preserve reliability .
  • Trading lens: Potential catalysts include tariff approvals, customer announcements (data centers), and Kansas/Missouri regulatory outcomes; EPS trajectory hinges on mitigation and H2 demand realization .